Could Nadal ever become Greatest of all time (GOAT)?
June 23, 2009 by apurvadesai
After Roger Federer won the 2009 French Open, I laid out the case in this posting why he should definitively be declared the greatest player of all time (GOAT). I also stated that I felt that Rafael Nadal would eventually end up being the GOAT after his career was all said and done. That naturally led to a healthy debate and of course there is no way to know—we all just need to wait and be patient. Since then, Nadal has pulled out of the 2009 Wimbledon due to injury and if his all out style is already leading to an injury riddled future, then the likelihood of him reaching GOAT status is unlikely. However, for now, I will be assuming that this injury will be a one off situation and he’ll be back at the US Open competing for his first US open title and a career grand slam.
In trying to foresee what Nadal’s career records could end up as, my curiosity led me to look at his performance at his current age (23) and compare it to the other top players’ at the same age and then look at their performance from ages 24-27, 28-31, and 32+. I looked at the number of grand slams won, number of weeks at # 1, and % of career ranked # 1 in the specific age bracket. After performing this analysis, Federer’s achievements become even more magnified and it’s clear that Nadal will be fighting difficult odds to become GOAT. Here are the results by age group:
| Through Age 23 |
|
# of Grand Slam Titles |
Weeks # 1 |
% of Career ranked # 1 |
| Nadal |
6 |
45 |
100% |
| Federer |
5 |
26 |
11% |
| Sampras |
5 |
66 |
23% |
| Borg |
7 |
7 |
6% |
| Lendl |
0 |
1 |
0% |
| Agassi |
1 |
0 |
0% |
| McEnroe |
4 |
39 |
23% |
| Connors |
3 |
66 |
25% |
-
Nadal is currently 23 years old. With 6 Grand slam titles at this age, he only trails Bjorn Borg who had 7 titles through age 23.
-
At 45 weeks at # 1, he trails only Sampras and Connors who were tied at 66 weeks ranked at # 1 during that age bracket.
-
The time ranked at # 1 for both Connors and Sampras represented only 23%-25% of their career time as # 1 player in the world.
-
In this age group, Nadal compares nicely to the top players.
| Age 24-27 |
|
# of Grand Slam Titles |
Weeks # 1 |
% of Career ranked # 1 while age 24-27 |
| Nadal |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Federer |
9 |
211 |
89% |
| Sampras |
6 |
167 |
58% |
| Borg |
4 |
102 |
94% |
| Lendl |
5 |
33 |
12% |
| Agassi |
2 |
32 |
32% |
| McEnroe |
3 |
131 |
77% |
| Connors |
2 |
187 |
70% |
- Federer is truly the class in the age 24-27 class, winning 9 grand slams and achieving # 1 status for 211 weeks. Federer is only 27 years old today and is currently the GOAT, in my opinion, based on the performance he’s had during this age bracket. If Nadal is to achieve GOAT status, he’ll have to approach Federer’s performance during the next 4 years.
- In the under 23 bracket, Borg, Sampras, and Connors were the class. As they moved into the age group 24-27, Sampras moved into another gear increasing his grand slam total from 5 to 6.
- Borg’s dominance began to decline as his grand slam totals moved from 7 to 4, although his time as # 1 player in the world increased to 102 weeks.
- Connors excelled during this period, achieving # 1 period for 187 weeks and 70% of his # 1 weeks during his career, but he could not convert this performance to Grand Slam titles, winning only 2 during the period.
| Age 28-31 |
|
# of Grand Slam Titles |
Weeks # 1 |
% of Career ranked # 1 while age 28-31 |
| Nadal |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Federer |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Sampras |
3 |
53 |
19% |
| Borg |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Lendl |
3 |
236 |
87% |
| Agassi |
4 |
55 |
54% |
| McEnroe |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Connors |
3 |
15 |
6% |
- Careers begin to diminish during the age 28-31 age bracket, with Lendl and Agassi proving to be the exception.
- Sampras earned 3 of his 14 grand slams in this age bracket and 19% of his # 1 rankings in this age group. His performance in this age group is what separated him from Borg, who’s peak performance ended by age 27.
- Sampras and Connors both excelled during their years up to 23 and also performed well in their 24-27 year old age group. If you use them as a historical role model for Federer, one would look at 3 more grand slams for Federer during this period to raise his total to 17.
- I wouldn’t consider Agassi and Lendl as comparative models for Federer as their period of dominance in essence started during this age bracket with 54% and 87% of their career weeks at number 1 in this age bracket. Federer already has 237 weeks of #1 ranked play before this age bracket.
| Age 32+ |
|
# of Grand Slam Titles |
Weeks # 1 |
% of Career ranked # 1 while 32+ |
| Nadal |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Federer |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Sampras |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Borg |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Lendl |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Agassi |
1 |
14 |
14% |
| McEnroe |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Connors |
0 |
0 |
0% |
- Clearly, top performance is completed by age 31. One shouldn’t expect any grand slams from Nadal or Federer after age 31.
- Agassi again proves to be the exception, winning 1 grand slam and actually achieving # 1 ranking for 14 weeks. But Agassi’s performance at this age is clearly an outlier.
Conclusions and Implications for Nadal’s GOAT candidacy
- Thus far in his career through age 23, Nadal has performed in line with Federer, Sampras, and Borg (1-3 in my top 5 of all time) but has not separated himself from them. For him to be GOAT, he’ll have to do it between ages 24-31.
- In the age 24-27 age group, Federer has won 9 Grand Slam titles. It is unlikely that Nadal would separate himself from that level of achievement and will have to continue his level of dominance of the French Open and sprinkle in a couple of of Wimbledon, Australian Open’s, and US Open’s to even compare to Federer’s level of performance. Now, for Nadal to excel during this period, he’d have to keep Federer from winning the 3 Grand Slams during his simultaneous 28-31 year age bracket which Sampras and Connors won during their years in this age bracket, which represents the best historical example of what Federer’s future in this age group could represent.
- Thus, where Nadal would have to separate himself would be in the age 28-31 year bracket. Again, historically, Sampras and Connors won 3 titles during this perod while Agassi won 4 titles in this period. Most likely Nadal would be competing at this age without a Federer, or at least a top notch Federer in the picture, so if Nadal can stay fit, this is where’ll he’ll have to ensure his candidacy.
- At the end of the day, after looking at this analysis, historical examples suggest it will be difficult for Nadal to surpass Federer. The level of achievement Federer had during a professional tennis player’s peak years of 23-27 will be extremely difficult for Nadal to surpass. Thus, for Nadal to be GOAT, my hypothesis is he’d have to have the best performance of all time during his 28-31 years. That is something you just can’t count on as the data suggests diminishing performance during the period.
- Given this analysis, I am retracting my earlier statement and no longer feel that Nadal will become GOAT. Federer is the current GOAT and I believe he will continue to be the future GOAT even after Nadal’s career is done.
- This is all subjective and I have no better view into the future than the next guy and for all we know, starting with this year’s Wimbledon, the next great player may start his run to greatness….that’s what makes sports fun—the unpredictability, the potential for drama, and the endless debate that a sport can generate with many realistic opinions and views of the future.
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Good post with some excellent research.
Interesting that – Agassi aside – careers seem to end at 31. Maybe this is because Agassi was never particularly quick around the court so his game suffered less than others as he get older. Also, Agassi was a fantastic striker of the ball which is something which may not diminish as much as fitness, pace or power.
If this is the case then I cannot see Nadal winning titles into his 30s as pace and power are probably his two biggest assets. Federer on the other hand is more like Agassi with fantastic groundstrokes and an ability to dictate points without having to cover much ground.
I would not be surprised to see Federer still winning Grand Slams in his 30s.
It would be interesting to see if Federer can keep doing it in his 30’s— one issue that a friend mentioned to me is Federer already thinks he doesn’t have much to prove anymore and if he wins a few more grand slams in his late twenties, i don’t know if he’ll be motivated to keep going….
I would say Federer has absolutely nothing to prove to anyone, although I doubt this will diminish his desire to win more grand slams. Ive seen nothing to suggest that he doesnt want to win this Wimbledon – and future grand slams – as much as the others
If I were him, Id be wanting to put the grand slam record out of sight and stand alone at the top of the list.
I think he definitely wants to distance himself from Sampras and that will motivate him for the next 3-4 years– but then once he’s in his 30’s, that will be the question for his motivation– as you say, how far in his mind is making the record out of sight and is that worth it for him, particularly if he is ranked in the Top 10 but not 1 or 2 and can win a major here and there for a few years but not consistently reaching the semis in every tournament– would he be satisfied with that?
Fair point. Im not sure he would want to carry on if he wasnt in the top bracket of players.
Time will tell though…
Great article, Thank you for the research. Going forward i think Federer will only be focusing on Grand Slams. In my book, in order to be considered GOAT, he needs to beat Nadal at least in majority of Grand Slams. He had the excuse last year of having Mono, but no longer.
Roger- thanks for the feedback. My guess is that they have 2 more years of playing for grand slam titles before Federer starts to consider retirement…if Federer wins only a couple of times during that time, i think the numbers would still support Federer as GOAT even when Nadal is all said and done.. I have my doubts if Nadal can win double digit grand slams over the next 4 years with Federer still at a top or close to top form for 2 of those years… we will see what happens, should be fun…
Very insightful and considered article.
At this stage I think it’s very unlikely that Nadal could surpass Federer’s record. Federer is more likely to continue winning slams after the age of 30 than Nadal is, because Nadal’s game relies so much on the physical aspect, where Federer’s doesn’t. Nadal’s knees are already showing the wear and tear of his playing style, so there’s no guarantee he’ll even still be playing at 30, or even 28.
The other thing which has to be considered is the new generation of players who have shown that they can beat Nadal on the big occasions. Djokovic, Murray and Del Potro have all shown they have what it takes, and I would add Cilic to that – the Cilic/Del Potro style of play is very awkward for Rafa, just as Rafa’s style is awkward for Roger. And we can’t forget that on grass and hard courts, the Rafa-Roger head-to-head is about 50-50, so for 3 of the 4 slams, despite the style match-up issues, there’s a decent chance Roger would beat him too. But the issue is this – where Roger only has one rival who can beat him consistently in the slams (Rafa), Rafa will potentially have 3 or 4.
I also think the US Open will be even harder for Rafa to win than the French was for Roger, because there are several players I would say are more likely to do it – Federer, Murray and Del Potro are all better bets on the fast hard courts. Even Djokovic. And at the end of a long, knee-destroying season, the US just doesn’t come at the right time. The fact that Federer has won all four majors is just as important to his GOAT claim as the overall number of slams, and it’s what puts him on another level to Sampras. For Nadal to be considered, he’d probably have to win the US at some point, and I’m not sure he will.
I think Nadal will continue to win the French on a regular, or semi-regular, basis, and he has a shot at another Wimbledon or two. But I can’t see him getting close to 16, and the US will be a big task for him. He’ll still go down on the list as one of the greatest, but on the Agassi/McEnroe level, rather than the Federer/Sampras/Borg/Laver level.